CAQ may not win, but their popularity may be a sign of things to come

It could be a victory that would change Quebec's political landscape should CAQ win next Tuesday's provincial election. Unfortunately it is unlikely to happen. After a rise in support during the first stages of the campaign it seems the momentum of Coalition Avenir Quebec has stalled just short of what they need to form the next government of that province. Sure they lean to the right of the political spectrum, but the shakeup that would likely follow would leave an opening for a federalist party on the left (a provincial NDP perhaps?), and would accelerate the demise of the sovereignty movement. Alas, it will probably not happen this time.

Still, the end of the separatist movement in Quebec looks like an almost certainty now.  A CROP poll today showed support for sovereignty at 28%, an astoundingly small number compared to what we have become accustomed to over the past three and a half decades.  It seems Quebecers are beginning to reach a consensus, of sorts, in that they are comfortable with remaining in Canada so long as they can have a considerable degree of autonomy.  You could see it with the success of the NDP during last year's federal election, and the beginning of the same may be happening provincially with the rise of CAQ.  It would take something pretty serious and unexpected to change what seems inevitable now.

Clint Eastwood portrays crazy old Republican voter

I haven't had much time to post here this past week, but I just couldn't resist this.



Honestly, this doesn't really make me think any less of Clint Eastwood, he is still a Hollywood legend.  He just comes across as an old man who has lost his marbles, the same that will happen to many of us someday.  But it does say something about the Republican party and the Romney campaign who can't seem to get anything right this election.  At this point their defeat looks inevitable.

Republican convention satire

Republicans gather in Tampa, Florida for their convention this week at just about the same time Hurricane Isaac is scheduled to hit the state, and comedian Andy Borowitz, in his satirical column for the New Yorker, has this to report:

TAMPA (The Borowitz Report)—With Hurricane Isaac heading towards the site of the 2012 Republican National Convention, presumptive G.O.P. nominee Mitt Romney today called for the government to respond with a round of “emergency tax cuts.” 

“If this hurricane is as powerful as predicted, it could destroy many people’s second and third homes,” Mr. Romney said. “In that worst-case scenario, it would be inhumane to ask them to pay more than thirteen per cent.”

You can read the rest here.

Presidential elections now fought over a small number of voters

If there is a theme to this year's U.S. presidential election, it is Barack Obama's small but consistent lead over Mitt Romney.  It really is a sign of the current polarization of politics in America, where parties fight over a small number of undecided voters.  It is a trend that has its roots in the divisive politics of the Gingrich lead Republicans in the 90s and accelerated with the election of George W. Bush in 2000.  Even Obama's "landslide" win in 2008 was smaller than landslides of past eras and only made possible by the unprecedented unpopularity of Bush and a weak Republican candidate in John McCain.  Obama won in 2008 with 53% of the vote compared to John McCain's 46% of the vote and with 365 electoral votes compared to 173.  Compare that with Ronald Reagan's 1984 win over Walter Mondale in which Reagan carried every state but Minnesota and the District of Columbia, or Richard Nixon's 1972 win over George McGovern in which Nixon won the popular vote by a 61% to 38% margin and again won every state save for Massachusetts and DC.  Today over half the states are automatic wins for one party or another.  The chart below illustrates this trend more clearly.  Democrat winners are in blue and Republican winners are in red.  (I apologize for my poor Blogger skills, they don't make it easy to make tables)

Year    Dem. candidate     Rep. candidate     popular vote    electoral vote    states won
1964    Johnson               Goldwater                   61 - 39               486 -  52              44 -  6
1968*  Humphrey            Nixon                         43 - 43               301 - 191             32 - 13
1972    McGovern             Nixon                        61 - 38               520 -    17             49 -  1
1976    Carter                   Ford                             50 - 48               297 - 240             23 - 27
1980    Carter                     Reagan                      51 - 41               489 -   49             44 -   6
1984    Mondale                 Reagan                      59 - 41               525 -   13             49 -   1
1988    Dukakis                  GHW Bush             53 - 46              426 - 111              40 - 10
1992    Clinton                GHW Bush               43 - 38               370 - 168              32 - 18
1996    Clinton                Dole                             49 - 41               379 - 159              31 - 19
2000    Gore                        GW Bush                48 - 48               271 - 266              30 - 20
2004    Kerry                      GW Bush                51 - 48               286 - 251              31 - 19
2008    Obama                  McCain                      53 - 46               365 - 173              28 - 22

(* in 1968 American Independent candidate George Wallace captured 5 states and 46 electoral votes with 14% of the popular vote)

The trend is quite obvious, the popular vote has become increasingly close, on average, while at the same time as like minded people become more and more concentrated in the same places, the number of safe states have increased for both parties (although the increase in states now out of play have been more pronounced for the Democrats).  As the number of voters that can be influenced continues to dwindle, elections will continue to be fought in a handful of states where the two parties are more or less evenly matched.

Gateway pipeline looks unlikely; and the popular Quebec election debates

There was an interesting article in today's Globe and Mail on the difference of opinion between Alberta and British Columbia on the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline.  While 63 percent of Albertans support the project, 56 percent of British Columbians oppose it.  It is becoming increasingly unlikely that the project will go ahead, especially given that Adrian Dix is almost sure to become premier of BC after the election next spring and is dead set against it.  Even if Christy Clark's Liberals somehow pulls off a miracle win, they will be under a lot of pressure to stop the deal.  The federal government does have jurisdiction over the project, but as the article says, winning seats in British Columbia is key to the Conservatives winning their next election.  So in the end the pipeline will probably not get built, at least not anytime soon, and rightly so.

On to the Quebec election, in her column today Chantal Hebert writes about the surprising number of people who tuned into the provincial election debates.  It was an unusual format this year with four debates, the first with the leaders of all four of the main parties, and then three nights of debates featuring head-to-head duels between the leaders of the three parties with the potential to win.  As she suggests, the debates were useful in that by changing between formats, viewers were able to get a more complete view of the leaders and their ideas.  Debates are often the only opportunity the voters have during an election campaign to see the leaders speak unscripted.  They also give viewers a chance to see the leaders answer questions they would usually avoid.  So it would be great to see more debates become common practice across Canada.

First, an introduction

It wouldn't seem right to start blogging without an introduction, so here it is.  I am progressive minded and born and raised on the Canadian prairies, which is where I live to this day.  While this blog probably will reflect my background, I expect I will be blogging on a wide number of political issues and topics starting with the U.S. elections which are coming up very soon.  There will be Canadian politics too, of course, and probably various politically related posts from around the world.  While I will likely be writing on the "horse race" side of politics, that will by no means be all I write about.  Often it is the issues I find most interesting.  Really, though, the ultimate direction this blog takes will only reveal itself over time.  I just hope to enjoy writing and maybe a few people will enjoy reading what they find here.