Some thoughts on this past week's Quebec election

I have been wanting to talk about the Quebec election results but I have been much too busy with work.  So I will give a few brief thoughts.  

The Parti Quebecois did end up winning the election and given their comfortable lead during the final days of the campaign, it wasn't a surprise.  What was a surprise was how narrow their victory was over the Liberals.  At 54 seats for the PQ to 50 for the Liberal Party, and with less than one percentage point between the two in the popular vote there was little in the results suggesting a mandate for pursuing another referendum on sovereignty.  In fact the combined vote of the three separatist parties: the PQ, Quebec Solidaire and Option Nationale, was just under 40 percent.

As for the CAQ, it was a disappointing night for them considering their standing in the opinion polls taken during the campaign.  With 19 seats they finished well behind the two leading parties.  It seems the sovereigntist-federalist duality will continue in Quebec provincial politics for a while yet.

The night of the election ended on a horrifying note when a gunman shot two people, killing one, just metres away from Pauline Marois while she was giving her victory speech.  There is a tendency, during events like this to analyze possible political motives behind the attack, but despite the gunman's remarks on how "the English are waking up", while he was being led away by police, it appears that this was only a tragic event carried out by a disturbed individual.

Perhaps, if I have time during the next week or so, I will expand on some of my thoughts on this election.  If not, I will probably be moving on to other topics.

CAQ may not win, but their popularity may be a sign of things to come

It could be a victory that would change Quebec's political landscape should CAQ win next Tuesday's provincial election. Unfortunately it is unlikely to happen. After a rise in support during the first stages of the campaign it seems the momentum of Coalition Avenir Quebec has stalled just short of what they need to form the next government of that province. Sure they lean to the right of the political spectrum, but the shakeup that would likely follow would leave an opening for a federalist party on the left (a provincial NDP perhaps?), and would accelerate the demise of the sovereignty movement. Alas, it will probably not happen this time.

Still, the end of the separatist movement in Quebec looks like an almost certainty now.  A CROP poll today showed support for sovereignty at 28%, an astoundingly small number compared to what we have become accustomed to over the past three and a half decades.  It seems Quebecers are beginning to reach a consensus, of sorts, in that they are comfortable with remaining in Canada so long as they can have a considerable degree of autonomy.  You could see it with the success of the NDP during last year's federal election, and the beginning of the same may be happening provincially with the rise of CAQ.  It would take something pretty serious and unexpected to change what seems inevitable now.

Gateway pipeline looks unlikely; and the popular Quebec election debates

There was an interesting article in today's Globe and Mail on the difference of opinion between Alberta and British Columbia on the proposed Northern Gateway pipeline.  While 63 percent of Albertans support the project, 56 percent of British Columbians oppose it.  It is becoming increasingly unlikely that the project will go ahead, especially given that Adrian Dix is almost sure to become premier of BC after the election next spring and is dead set against it.  Even if Christy Clark's Liberals somehow pulls off a miracle win, they will be under a lot of pressure to stop the deal.  The federal government does have jurisdiction over the project, but as the article says, winning seats in British Columbia is key to the Conservatives winning their next election.  So in the end the pipeline will probably not get built, at least not anytime soon, and rightly so.

On to the Quebec election, in her column today Chantal Hebert writes about the surprising number of people who tuned into the provincial election debates.  It was an unusual format this year with four debates, the first with the leaders of all four of the main parties, and then three nights of debates featuring head-to-head duels between the leaders of the three parties with the potential to win.  As she suggests, the debates were useful in that by changing between formats, viewers were able to get a more complete view of the leaders and their ideas.  Debates are often the only opportunity the voters have during an election campaign to see the leaders speak unscripted.  They also give viewers a chance to see the leaders answer questions they would usually avoid.  So it would be great to see more debates become common practice across Canada.