CAQ may not win, but their popularity may be a sign of things to come

It could be a victory that would change Quebec's political landscape should CAQ win next Tuesday's provincial election. Unfortunately it is unlikely to happen. After a rise in support during the first stages of the campaign it seems the momentum of Coalition Avenir Quebec has stalled just short of what they need to form the next government of that province. Sure they lean to the right of the political spectrum, but the shakeup that would likely follow would leave an opening for a federalist party on the left (a provincial NDP perhaps?), and would accelerate the demise of the sovereignty movement. Alas, it will probably not happen this time.

Still, the end of the separatist movement in Quebec looks like an almost certainty now.  A CROP poll today showed support for sovereignty at 28%, an astoundingly small number compared to what we have become accustomed to over the past three and a half decades.  It seems Quebecers are beginning to reach a consensus, of sorts, in that they are comfortable with remaining in Canada so long as they can have a considerable degree of autonomy.  You could see it with the success of the NDP during last year's federal election, and the beginning of the same may be happening provincially with the rise of CAQ.  It would take something pretty serious and unexpected to change what seems inevitable now.