Saturday, November 10, 2012

The day after the election

I had begun this post the day after the election and have just finished it now.  Here is a summary of the results along with some thoughts:

Results:
Presidential electoral college: Obama 332  Romney 206
Presidential popular vote:  Obama 50%  Romney 48%
Senate:  Democrats 55  Republicans 45, a 2 seat gain for Dems
House of Representatives:  Republicans 234 Democrats 194 TBD 7, previously was 242-193 Republicans

And a few details and thoughts:

-While not a huge win for Obama, it was a clear win, meaning the Republicans will have a hard time disputing the legitimacy of his Presidency (although I am sure some of them will try)

-Romney won the white vote 59-39%, while Obama won the black vote 93-7% and the Latino vote 71-27%.  It is inevitable that the Republicans will have to start reaching out to minority voters if they ever want to win again, which will be a positive development for all.  But don't expect it to happen too soon, as there is certain to be a battle brewing between tea partiers and more moderates in that party and so a firm change in direction won't happen until that has been settled.

-Obama won among women by a 55-43%  margin, due in large part to Republicans' stance on birth control and abortion as well as comments by a couple of crazy Senators on rape.

-The Democrats gains in the Senate is remarkable considering they were defending  seats compared to   for the Republicans in a year that was not overwhelmingly favourable to them in comparison to 2006 and 2008. A big reason for this was the number of high quality candidates they nominated as compared to the relatively poor slate of Republican candidates.

-As expected, the Democrats will only pick up a few seats in the House.  They will need to come up with a better strategy for winning this chamber in the future.  This almost surely means the end of Nancy Pelosi's time as leader.  From 2006 to 2010 the House was the more progressive than either the President or the Senate, in large part due to Pelosi who was Speaker at that time.

-Same sex marriage was on the ballot on four states.  Maine, Maryland and Washington passed initiatives to allow same sex marriage while Minnesota rejected a proposal to define marriage as exclusively that of a man and a woman.  Meanwhile Washington and Colorado voted to legalize marijuana and California passed a measure to allow tax increases that would go towards saving cuts to education and helping reduce the state's deficit.

-My thoughts on this election?  It was a good result considering the current economic situation.  Yes, the victories of 2006 and 2008 were larger, but the Democrats were aided by a very unpopular president and an unpopular war.  It could very well have been a small blip in a country that was continuing to move to the right, a possibility underscored by the huge Republican gains of 2010.  But the Democrats held up well this time and showed signs that their recent success was durable.  Perhaps the country is ready to move to the left again after decades of moving to the right.  While Republicans are now a party primarily white, male and southern, the Democrats have stitched together a much broader coalition, and have engaged parts of the population that had long been alienated and indifferent to the political process.  I don't expect a sharp turn or that there will not be setbacks, but I do believe that this new, more progressive coalition of citizens will be dominant in American politics for a long time.

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