5:53 pm - Okay, I came home from work early today so that I can watch the results of the election come in, and decided I would live blog this thing as it seems this is what people with a political blog are supposed to do. My prediction? Obama wins the electoral college pretty easily. Of the states he won in 2008, he will only lose Indiana, North Carolina and Florida along with the one electoral vote from Nebraska. But it won't be apparent for a while as a number of states will be close. So let's see what happens.
6:27 pm - Joe Donnelly, Democrat, is leading over Richard Mourdock, his Republican opponent, by 48-46%. This is an interesting one, Mourdock seemed likely to win until his comment during a recent debate where he said rape was "God's will". Some Senate predictions in a few minutes, but the important Ohio polls are about to close now.
6:31 pm - Two encouraging exit polls for Obama. Not only did he out-poll Romney 51-48% in Ohio, but he was tied 49-49% in North Carolina.
6:34 pm - Before too many results come in, I am predicting that in the Senate, the Democrats will finish with one more seat than before the election: 54-46. They will pick up Maine, Massachusetts and Indiana but lose North Dakota and Nebraska. They will be less successful in the House of Representatives, picking up only a handful of seats (6-10), due in large part to redistricting in Republican controlled states. The Republicans will still hold a comfortable majority in that legislative body.
7:04 pm - A wave of states closing now. Obama now has 64 electoral votes and Romney has 40. But nothing unexpected so far. More interesting is the Florida exit poll where Obama came out ahead 50-49%. If Romney loses that, it is lights out. Actually is is looking very discouraging for Romney right now.
7:09 pm - As for the actual results in the states that matter, Obama leads Florida 51-49%, New Hampshire 64-35%, and Ohio 61-38%, while Romney is ahead in Virginia 59-40%. Most of these are still very early results, but 43% of polls in Florida are now in.
7:35 pm - Two states directly to the south of my province will have interesting races tonight. Romney will win in both Montana and North Dakota, but each could have very close Senate results. Six years ago, John Tester won the Senate seat in Montana by just over 3,000 votes. This year, polls say the results could be just as close between him and the Republican nominee, Denny Rehberg. Tester has had his success in this red state by portraying himself as sort of a populist libertarian.
In North Dakota, Democratic Senator Kent Conrad retired and this was expected to be an easy Republican pickup, however their candidate, Rick Berg, has proven to be a rather weak candidate while Democrat Heidi Heitkamp has proven to be quite popular.
I have predicted Tester will prevail in Montana, but it very well may be the closest race tonight. In North Dakota, I expect that the Republican candidate will prevail in the end in a state where the GOP is dominant.
7:54 pm - At 50-49% for Obama, could Florida be as close as it was in 2000? If so, Obama wins the election as there are several other swing states where he is stronger.
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