Presidential Election of 2016

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Presidential Election of 2012

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Presidential Election of 2008

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Presidential Election of 2004

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Presidential Election of 2000

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Presidential Election of 1996

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1992 Presidential Election

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Presidential Election of 1988

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Presidential Election of 1984

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Presidential Election of 1980

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Presidential Election of 1976

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2020 US Presidential Forecast - October 27

 One week to go before the election and nothing has changed since the last update, 8 days ago. Trump has pretty much run out of time to make a comeback. The question is, will he find a way to hold on to power, anyways? It's scary to think about, but it is a possibility.

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2020 US Senate Forecast - October 20

 

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2020 US Presidential Forecast - October 19

 Joe Biden's lead in the polls keeps growing. He now has a 10.7% lead over Trump in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. He has also solidified his position in a few more states since the last update. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire are now all solid Democrat, which give Biden more than enough electoral votes to win, even if he only wins those states that are dark blue on the map. Meanwhile, North Carolina now leans blue while Iowa has moved from lean Republican to tossup.

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2020 US Presidential Forecast - October 6

 In my last update, I thought the confirmation of a new supreme court justice might change the race. But that has been completely overshadowed, first by a odd performance by Trump at the presidential debate, and then by Trump catching COVID. Meanwhile, Biden seems to be extending his lead. Georgia is now a tossup and Florida is back to leaning Biden. As the crucial trio of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania continue to move towards Biden, time is running out for Trump to catch up.

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2020 US Presidential Forecast - September 20

For the first time in the forecast, Joe Biden could win the election by winning every safe and likely state. While national polls have moved slightly towards Trump over the past few weeks, Biden has been getting some pretty good poll results in the states most important to his election. The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg and the Republican plan to confirm a new nominee before the election have the potential to shake up the race. On the other hand, considering that Biden's lead has been pretty stable despite a very turbulent year, it might be that this event won't change things much either.

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2020 US Presidential Forecast - September 9

Electoral votes favoring Democratic candidate Joe Biden have gone from 307 in the last update to 289 now, as Florida has moved from lean Democrat to toss-up. However several other key states have moved in Biden's favor. Again, the overall picture is of a clear and stable lead by Joe Biden over Donald Trump but the lead is far from insurmountable.

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2020 US Presidential Forecast - August 26

There has been some slight movement to Trump since the last forecast, but very little has changed in the overall picture of the race. We'll see if there is any more movement once the dust settles from the party conventions.

 

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2020 US Presidential Forecast - August 15

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