One week to go before the election and nothing has changed since the last update, 8 days ago. Trump has pretty much run out of time to make a comeback. The question is, will he find a way to hold on to power, anyways? It's scary to think about, but it is a possibility.
Tuesday, October 27, 2020
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Tuesday, October 20, 2020
Monday, October 19, 2020
2020 US Presidential Forecast - October 19
Joe Biden's lead in the polls keeps growing. He now has a 10.7% lead over Trump in the FiveThirtyEight forecast. He has also solidified his position in a few more states since the last update. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and New Hampshire are now all solid Democrat, which give Biden more than enough electoral votes to win, even if he only wins those states that are dark blue on the map. Meanwhile, North Carolina now leans blue while Iowa has moved from lean Republican to tossup.
Tuesday, October 6, 2020
2020 US Presidential Forecast - October 6
In my last update, I thought the confirmation of a new supreme court justice might change the race. But that has been completely overshadowed, first by a odd performance by Trump at the presidential debate, and then by Trump catching COVID. Meanwhile, Biden seems to be extending his lead. Georgia is now a tossup and Florida is back to leaning Biden. As the crucial trio of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania continue to move towards Biden, time is running out for Trump to catch up.
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